U.S.-bound shipments see first annual gain in 14 months in September, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence

With a modest annual increase, United States-bound containerized freight imports snapped a 13-month stretch of annual declines in September, going back to July 2022, according to data recently issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

September imports, at 2.54 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), increased 1% annually as Peak Season begins in earnest, while trailing August’s 2.88 million TEU tally. On a year-to-date basis through September, imports are down 13% annually, at 21.38 million TEU.

S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that shipments of consumer discretionary goods were flat in September, following a 17% August gain. And it added that consumer electronics shipments headed up 3%, as home appliances shipments rose 26%. Furniture and apparel imports each declined 7%, with leisure goods, including seasonal toys, were off 2%.

我t also reported that consumer staples, including food and healthcare products, were down 2%, following a 7% August decrease, with healthcare equipment and supplies up 1%, offsetting a 13% decrease in pharmaceuticals and a 3% decrease in food and beverages.

Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research for S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in an interview, explained that when looking at import levels, it is important to note that stabilization is not even across all sectors. As an example, he said that the consumer space, which is not necessarily the biggest segment for shipments, is the one that sees the most shifts.

“A big reason for the stabilization is that the extended downturn in home appliances shipments that occurred in the third and fourth quarter of last year has been lapped,” he said. “Household appliances [shipments] are up 26% annually, which is a reflection of just how bad last year’s fourth quarter was. Leisure products, which includes toys, are important this time of year, as is apparel, with bulkier winter clothing, are both down 2% and 7%, respectively. This is not a cause for celebration; it is more of a reflection on getting past some of the worst times.”

When asked if the remaining months of 2023 could improve upon September’s 1% annual increase, Rogers said S&P Global Market Intelligence is forecasting what he called a slight increase in fourth quarter global trade activity, while remaining in the low single-digit range.

“We're not expecting a radical recovery,” he said. “The macro situation for consumers isn't great, obviously, as there is still plenty of bearishness around spending on the industrial side. The ISM’s manufacturing PMI readings have been a negative for manufacturers. And then you've got risk issues, with the ongoing auto workers strike for example. The recovery is going to be pretty slow, in terms of both industrial shipments and consumer shipments.”

Regarding the auto strike, Rogers observed that in September, out of the 2.54 million TEU imports, around 180,000 are auto parts (per month in the third quarter), around 7% of monthly TEU.

Addressing the impact of inflation on shipment levels, Rogers said that despite inflation being relatively flat in September, it remains stubbornly high overall, being driven by both shelter costs and housing costs, coupled with other headwinds like fluctuating fuel costs and the start of the holiday season.