LM观点:物流状态报告显示the great reset is underway

When contributing editor John Schulz and I had our first conversation about the release of the 34th Annual State of Logistics Report last month, we both had the same first reaction to its title: “The Great Reset.” Yes, that sounds about right, we said.

Day to day, week to week, Schulz and group news editor Jeff Berman have been watching and reporting on pricing and volume levels across the modes over the past six months, and the cumulative result of all the data is that, yes, more regular patterns are becoming evident. In fact, we’re seeing that old pendulum reference come up again: The pendulum has swung back to the shipper side.

The LM editorial team has once again devoted a good portion of our July issue to not only taking a deeper dive into the findings of the annual State of Logistics Report, but also to offer our own reports on where each mode stands in terms of rates, capacity, and service midway through the year.

As readers of LM are aware, the annual State of Logistics Report is authored by global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney in partnership with CSCMP and Penske Logistics. There’s little doubt that it’s now known as the most comprehensive report of its kind, encapsulating the cost of the U.S. business logistics (USBL) system during the previous year (2022) and offering a snapshot of how economic conditions are shaping the current logistics landscape.

This year, the teams at A.T. Kearney and CSCMP did the official release on June 20 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. And while it wasn’t held at its traditional spot at the National Press Club inside the beltway in D.C. where Schulz had been in attendance for more than 20 years, he was able to hop on the virtual feed to take part.

“Indeed, the bottom line is that the balance of power in logistics has shifted back to shippers,” says Schulz. “Those who safely navigated the pandemic waters are being treated to a plethora of new options, depending on mode—the old pendulum has swung back.”

And as we’ve been reporting, carriers continue to face challenges. Costs are rising across the board, the nation’s truckers have been stunned by the drop in spot markets, and rail carriers have had to manage through high-profile accidents, lagging service levels and continued labor shortages.

However, as the report’s authors stress throughout, the pandemic has proven that shippers can hardly rest on their laurels. And ideally, shippers and their carrier partners have used the past three years to strengthen their understanding of each other’s businesses to build in more flexibility and resilience. As we experienced over the pandemic years, conditions on the ground can change on a dime, further testing the strength of the shipper/carrier relationship that has been built.

According to Schulz, probably the most telling quote of this year’s State of Logistics presentation came from Rob Haddock, group director, transportation strategy at Coca-Cola North America: “The 2023 ‘shippers’ market will come to an end during the fourth quarter of this year and into the first quarter of 2024, and no shipper should be caught off guard unless they’ve ignored the opportunity to improve their capabilities and their ‘shipper of choice’ behaviors.”

Judging from all we know, it seems like Haddock is right. “The good news is that shippers continue to get smarter and closer to their carriers, enabling them to make better decisions faster,” adds Schulz. “It seems like there is no such thing as a five-year plan anymore. The reset is underway, and you better be ready now.”