Preliminary March Class 8 net orders see annual and sequential declines

Preliminary North American Class 8 net trucking orders, for the month of March, saw declines, according to recent data respectively issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR and ACT Research, a provider of data and analysis for trucks and other commercial vehicles.

FTR reported that March preliminary net orders—at 19,000 units—were down 11% annually and down 18%, from February to March, with net orders down for the fifth time over the last six months. This followed an increase in March.

The firm explained that while there has been a softening in recent order activity, order activity is in line with market expectations, at an annualized run rate of 340,000 units over the last six months, with total Class 8 orders coming in at 301,500 units over the last 12 months through March. And it added that with most build slots filled for 2023 that slower order activity was anticipated. What’s more, it noted that the reduced order levels are expected to continue through the summer months, heading into the normal seasonally weak order period, with fleets continuing to request equipment, coupled with quote behavior in line with past seasonal behavior.

“With build activity over the last several months hovering near 27,000 units, backlogs likely fell during the month,” said Eric Starks, FTR chairman of the board, in a statement. “Given that backlogs are sitting at such high levels, however, it is difficult to ascertain if there is a fundamental weakening in the Class 8 equipment market given order activity levels. The incoming order rate for March was 228,000 annualized, right in the sweet spot at replacement demand levels. Overall, the numbers were solid and will have little impact on production levels over the next two quarters. Given the uncertainty in the economy, this is a welcome sign that demand has not collapsed and that fleets still have access to capital.”

ACT data:ACT reported that March preliminary Class 8 net orders—at 19,200 units—were down 10% annually and down 19%, from February to March.

“Given how robust Class 8 orders were into year-end and ensuing backlog support, coupled with increasingly cautious readings from the ACT Class 8 Dashboard (-6 on average year-to-date in 2023, vs. -3 on average from March-December 2022), we have expected SA orders in a range of 15-20k units per month into mid Q3’23,” shared Eric Crawford, ACT’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, in a statement. “After coming in stronger than expected last month, SA Class 8 orders fell back within the 15-20k range, and have averaged 19,500 units year-to-date.”