Preliminary June Class 8 orders are mixed

Preliminary North American Class 8 net trucking orders, for the month of June, were mixed, according to recent data respectively issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR and ACT Research, a provider of data and analysis for trucks and other commercial vehicles.

FTR reported that June preliminary orders—at 13,800 units—beat expectations for the second straight month after six months of declines, which was flat compared to May, and down 7% annually. FTR said that this tally continues to be below replacement demand, with total Class 8 orders over the last 12 months through June came in at 297,800 units.

“FTR has been anticipating net Class 8 orders to drop over the last several months to below 10,000 units,” said Eric Starks, FTR chairman of the board, in a statement. “This has not occurred, which is a positive sign that fleets still need equipment. However, with all the order slots filled for 2023 and 2024 slots yet to be fully opened, it is unclear when these ordered trucks will be built. OEMs have hinted for months that they are willing to keep build activity elevated well into Q4. With the recent solid order totals, it is all but guaranteed that Q4 production will be strong. OEM build slots for 2024 are not expected to open until August at the earliest.”

The normally weaker orders due to a seasonal mid-year slowdown coupled with strong build activity will keep shrinking backlogs,” Starks added. “This will pull backlogs back into a normal range over the next several months as the backlog-to-build ratio is currently elevated and putting pressure on OEMs to keep building equipment.”

ACT data:ACT reported that preliminary North American Class 8 June orders—at 16,200 units—rose 5% annually and were up 4% compared to May, remaining seasonally soft, which it said was expected.

“Given robust Class 8 orders into year-end 2022 and the ensuing backlog support, coupled with normal seasonal order patterns, orders were expected to moderate into Q2 and remain at relatively soft levels into mid-Q3’23,” said Eric Crawford, ACT’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, in a statement. “June orders were in line with this view, bringing the ytd monthly SA average to 18,200. The relatively few build slots still free in 2H’23 suggest order intake is unlikely to find meaningful traction until 2024 order boards open.”